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Goldman and Morgan Stanley can’t agree on SpaceX’s future by $132B, and it prices tomorrow anyway

SpaceX
Image credits: brandoninfl/Depositphotos
  • On June 3, SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 per share, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation and to raise $75 billion.
  • The roadshow began on June 4 and ends tomorrow. Google has reportedly committed $11 billion, and Wall Street banks estimate SpaceX could reach up to $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040.
  • SpaceX closed its order book a day early on June 10, showing that demand was much higher than supply ahead of its Nasdaq debut on June 12.

When Tech Funding News last reported on SpaceX’s IPO plans on May 22, the S-1 had just been released, and the price was still unknown.

In the three weeks since, most details have been confirmed, and the deal has become bigger, faster, and more unusual than many expected.

The price, the raise, and the structure

On June 3, SpaceX filed its amended S-1/A with the Securities and Exchange Commission, setting a fixed offer price of $135 per share. There was no price range or bookbuild, just a direct number. This move broke with standard IPO practice and unsettled some institutional investors who are used to setting their own price signals.

The company will sell 555,555,555 Class A shares, raising $75 billion before expenses. Underwriters hold an option to buy a further 83.3 million shares at the same price within 30 days, worth an additional $11.25 billion.

At $135 per share, SpaceX will list at a $1.75 trillion valuation, making it roughly the seventh-largest company in the US and putting it above Tesla’s current market cap of about $1.6 trillion.

The roadshow

Goldman Sachs, leading the 21-bank syndicate as the main bookrunner, decorated its Manhattan lobby with Starship images on June 4 to start the investor roadshow. Morgan Stanley did the same. Both banks shared internal revenue projections with institutional investors, and these projections made headlines on their own.

Morgan Stanley told investors that SpaceX could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA over $2.7 trillion. Goldman Sachs predicted $474 billion in total revenue by 2030, with AI alone making up $322 billion that year. Morgan Stanley’s AI estimate for 2030 was $190 billion, creating a $132 billion gap between the two lead underwriters. This difference shows how uncertain the AI projections still are.

Both banks project a near-identical revenue of approximately $160 billion in 2028.

Google commits $11 billion

One week before pricing, Google confirmed an $11 billion strategic investment in SpaceX as part of the offering, adding one of the world’s largest technology companies to the cap table and providing a significant anchor for the institutional book. Google already holds a roughly 5% stake from earlier rounds; the new commitment deepens that position.

Retail — who can buy and how

SpaceX set aside up to 30% of the offering for retail investors, which is about three times the usual 5% to 10% for a large IPO. With $75 billion raised, around $22.5 billion in shares are available to individual investors. 

In the US, people can buy through Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and ETRADE. In Europe, access is through Revolut, Hargreaves Lansdown, and eToro. ETRADE also announced extra shares for Tesla shareholders who have held their stock for at least ten years.

SpaceX told investors it would stop taking orders on June 10, a day earlier than planned. This move showed that demand was much higher than supply before the order book officially closed.

The risk picture hasn’t changed

None of the recent updates addresses the main concern from the S-1: SpaceX is losing money on a large scale. The company reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 on $18.7 billion in revenue, and another $4.28 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026. 

The AI division, which joined through the xAI merger in February, lost $2.5 billion in operating costs in just one quarter. Starlink remains the only profitable segment, generating $1.19 billion in operating profit in Q1.

The first real test of SpaceX’s valuation will come when its first quarterly earnings report is released in September 2026. This will give public investors their first chance to see if AI revenue is growing quickly enough to justify paying $1.75 trillion now for future milestones that have not yet produced a profit.

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