- Polymarket is in early talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion.
- The round would land four months after Polymarket closed a $15 billion round backed by ICE.
- Rival Kalshi is chasing a $40 billion valuation, making this a two-horse race for the category.
Four months ago, Polymarket, a US-based blockchain-based prediction platform, closed a round that valued it at $15 billion. Now it wants investors to write checks against a number that starts with a two.
Polymarket is in early talks to raise around $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, according to a Bloomberg report that a person familiar with the matter independently confirmed to CNBC.
It would more than double the roughly $8 billion valuation Polymarket carried when Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, first agreed to invest up to $2 billion in the company in October 2025, a round that made Polymarket one of the 10 largest US funding deals of 2025.
A rematch four months in the making
Founded in June 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and settles trades in USDC, allowing users to buy YES or NO contracts on outcomes ranging from elections to cryptocurrency prices, with prices moving in real time as the crowd’s expectations shift.
Coplan built the platform from his New York apartment during COVID-19 lockdown, dropped out of NYU, and bought Ethereum as a teenager when it traded near $0.30. Backers include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Founders Fund, and Polychain Capital.
Since its latest funding, Polymarket’s annualised revenue has climbed well above $1 billion, driven by the May launch of Polymarket’s regulated US exchange, which had operated on a waitlist since December. Daily notional volume on that US exchange has grown to more than $100 million, up from roughly $75 million at the end of May, while the international platform handles upwards of $150 million a day, according to CNBC, citing Dune Analytics data.
Kalshi sets the price the market has to beat
Kalshi, Polymarket’s chief US-based rival, raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May and is now reportedly targeting $40 billion in a round expected later in 2026, a huge jump from the.$5 billion valuation it carried less than a year earlier.
Kalshi generates around $1.5 billion in annualised revenue and entered the US market well before Polymarket’s regulated platform went live, a head start reflected in the price investors are paying.
Bank of America and Bernstein estimate the wider prediction markets sector will process around $240 billion in trading volume in 2026, up 370% from 2025, and could reach $1 trillion annually by 2030, though both companies still face unresolved legal questions in multiple states over whether their contracts count as financial instruments or gambling products.
If a round at this level closes, it will be the first Polymarket completes since its US exchange went fully live, turning four months of live trading data into the clearest test yet of whether its international lead survives head-to-head competition with a rival that already owns the US audience.
